Preparing for 2026: Economic Forecasts Every CEO Should Watch

The winds of global economics are shifting again—and 2026 could be a make-or-break year for South African and African businesses alike. CEOs who read the signals early won’t just survive the coming turbulence—they’ll soar above it.

Think of 2026 as the next chapter in a high-stakes chess match between growth, inflation, and innovation. Every move counts. From fluctuating commodity prices to emerging technologies and trade realignments, the global economy is undergoing seismic change.

For business leaders, foresight is now a strategic advantage. This article explores the key economic forecasts for 2026 that every CEO should track—helping organisations stay resilient, competitive, and ready for the opportunities hidden within uncertainty.

1. Global Growth Will Remain Uneven—but Africa Holds Promise

According to the IMF, global GDP growth is expected to slow to around 2.8% in 2026, driven by geopolitical tensions and tighter fiscal policies. Yet, sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow by 4%, outpacing most advanced economies.

Why it matters: African economies are becoming more self-reliant, with trade integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) unlocking cross-border opportunities.

Tip: CEOs should explore regional partnerships and value-chain integration to tap into intra-African trade growth.

Quote: “Africa’s growth story is shifting from resource-driven to innovation-led.” — Akinwumi Adesina, President, African Development Bank

2. Inflation Will Ease, But Cost Pressures Stay Sticky

After years of high inflation, forecasts suggest gradual cooling—but not full relief. Energy, logistics, and wage costs are likely to remain elevated.

Stat: The World Bank projects South Africa’s inflation to average 4.5%–5% through 2026, near the upper target range of the SARB.

Tip: CEOs must continue prioritising cost optimisation through automation, local sourcing, and predictive analytics.

Example: Retailers like Shoprite are using supply chain digitisation to manage price volatility while maintaining consumer trust.

3. Technology Investment Will Define Market Leaders

By 2026, AI, data analytics, and automation will no longer be “nice-to-haves”—they’ll be core to competitiveness. Gestaldt reports that digital transformation leaders grow up to 2.5x faster than laggards.

Why it matters: The tech gap between forward-thinking firms and slow adopters will widen, especially in sectors like finance, logistics, and manufacturing.

Tip: CEOs should invest in data literacy across leadership teams, not just IT departments, to make technology a company-wide advantage.

Quote: “The next wave of digital transformation will reward companies that can turn data into decision-making power.” — Satya Nadella, Microsoft CEO

4. ESG and Sustainability Will Shape Capital Flows

The rise of the green economy continues to reshape investment priorities. By 2026, investors will favour companies that show measurable environmental and social impact.

Stat: Bloomberg Intelligence predicts global ESG assets will exceed $50 trillion by 2026.

Example: South African firms like Sasol and Nedbank are already pivoting toward greener strategies to align with sustainable finance frameworks.

Tip: CEOs should embed ESG into core strategy, not treat it as a compliance checkbox. Transparent reporting and climate resilience will attract long-term investors.

5. The Labour Market Is Changing—Talent Retention Is the New Currency

Automation and hybrid work models will transform how organisations operate. The World Economic Forum predicts that 60% of employees will need new skills by 2026.

Why it matters: Companies that fail to reskill and empower talent risk losing their best people to agile competitors.

Tip: Build a continuous learning culture—encourage upskilling, mentorship, and internal mobility to future-proof your workforce.

Quote: “The companies that win the talent race will be those that invest in people as deeply as they invest in technology.” — Arundhati Bhattacharya, Salesforce India CEO

6. Geopolitics and Trade Realignment Will Reshape Supply Chains

From the BRICS expansion to shifting global alliances, the next 18 months will test supply chain resilience.

Example: South Africa’s growing role in BRICS+ could open new trade routes with Middle Eastern and Asian markets—but also expose firms to geopolitical risks.

Tip: CEOs should diversify sourcing, strengthen risk management frameworks, and develop contingency plans for currency and logistics volatility.

Stat: Gestaldt reports that companies with diversified supply chains are 30% less likely to face production disruptions during global shocks.

Conclusion: The CEOs Who Thrive Will Be the Ones Who Anticipate

Preparing for 2026 isn’t about predicting every twist—it’s about building agility and foresight into your leadership DNA.

The next economic cycle will reward CEOs who act early: those who digitise intelligently, invest sustainably, empower people, and navigate uncertainty with clarity.

As the saying goes, “The best way to predict the future is to create it.” The time to start building that future is now.

Global Economic Headwinds: How South African Businesses Can Stay Resilient

The global economy is facing turbulence once again—rising interest rates, supply chain disruptions, inflation, and geopolitical tensions are creating waves that reach every corner of the world. For South African businesses, these headwinds pose real challenges. Yet, with the right strategies, they also present opportunities for resilience and reinvention.

Think of the economy as a shifting ocean: while some ships struggle against the current, others adjust their sails and find new routes forward. South African leaders must now do the same—adapt, diversify, and innovate to weather uncertainty and thrive in changing conditions.

In this article, we’ll unpack the key global pressures impacting South Africa and explore actionable ways local businesses can stay resilient in 2025 and beyond.

1. Understand the Headwinds: Inflation, Rates & Global Demand

Global inflation remains sticky, with central banks keeping interest rates higher for longer. This environment raises costs and tightens liquidity for South African companies.

Pro tip: Reassess your pricing and cash flow strategies regularly. Focus on operational efficiency and negotiate flexible financing terms with lenders.

Stat: The IMF projects global growth at just 2.9% for 2025—below the long-term average.

2. Strengthen Local Supply Chains

Supply chain fragility continues to challenge businesses worldwide. South African firms that depend heavily on imports must localise and diversify their suppliers to avoid disruptions.

Example: Retailers sourcing regionally within Africa are reducing costs and ensuring faster turnaround times.

Quote: “Don’t put all your eggs in one supply chain basket.” – Warren Buffett.

3. Embrace Digital Transformation

Technology remains one of the strongest shields against economic uncertainty. Automation, data analytics, and AI-driven insights can streamline operations and improve customer experience.

Pro tip: Invest in digital tools that enhance decision-making and build resilience—especially cloud-based systems and predictive analytics.

4. Focus on Customer Retention Over Expansion

In tough times, loyalty pays off. Instead of chasing new markets, focus on deepening relationships with existing customers. Consistent communication, reliability, and value-added services build long-term trust.

Stat: Gestaldt reports that increasing customer retention by 6% can boost profits by up to 97%.

5. Build Financial Agility

Resilient businesses are financially flexible. Keep debt levels manageable, maintain liquidity buffers, and review financial models under different scenarios.

Pro tip: Use scenario planning to stress-test your financial assumptions under different market conditions.

6. Prioritise Talent and Culture

Economic headwinds often lead to cost-cutting, but organisations that invest in people during downturns emerge stronger. Empower teams, maintain transparent communication, and reward innovation.

Insight: According to Gestaldt, purpose-led and engaged workforces recover faster during crises.

7. Leverage Regional Opportunities

South Africa’s proximity to growing African markets presents a unique resilience opportunity. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) opens access to over 1.3 billion consumers and promotes intra-African trade.

Pro tip: Expand regionally through strategic partnerships or export-focused initiatives.

Conclusion: Turning Headwinds into Tailwinds

The global economy’s unpredictability isn’t going away, but resilient South African businesses can adapt and thrive. By focusing on agility, digital transformation, financial discipline, and a strong organisational culture, leaders can navigate uncertainty with confidence.

Resilience isn’t about avoiding the storm—it’s about learning to sail better through it. The businesses that embrace this mindset will not only survive global headwinds but use them to propel forward into a more competitive, future-ready South Africa.

The Future of State-Owned Enterprises: Reform or Reinvention?

State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are often described as the backbone of a nation’s economy, but in many countries, their pulse is irregular. Burdened with inefficiencies, corruption scandals, and mounting debt, SOEs stand at a crossroads: should they be reformed within their current structures, or does the future call for full reinvention? For governments, businesses, and citizens alike, the answer carries high stakes.

In this article, we’ll unpack the current state of SOEs, explore global case studies of reform and reinvention, weigh the pros and cons of each path, and outline what the future could look like. By the end, you’ll have a clear sense of the opportunities and risks tied to SOE transformation.

1. The Current Reality of SOEs

SOEs play a critical role in sectors like energy, transport, and finance. Yet, many are underperforming, becoming fiscal burdens rather than growth drivers. Mismanagement, political interference, and lack of accountability often plague them.

Stat: In South Africa, SOEs such as Eskom and Transnet together account for over R1 trillion in government guarantees, straining public finances.

Quote: “SOEs were designed to be strategic assets, but too many have become liabilities.” – Economist at the World Bank

Tip for leaders: Understand the health of SOEs in your industry, as their performance can directly impact supply chains, infrastructure, and investment.

2. Reform: Fixing the Foundations

Reform means repairing the existing structure of SOEs without fundamentally changing their role. This can include better governance, improved oversight, and stronger financial controls.

Case example: Singapore’s Temasek Holdings shows how effective governance and transparency can turn SOEs into globally competitive companies.

Stat: Countries that implemented SOE reforms saw productivity gains of up to 15% within a decade (OECD).

Practical tip: Governments considering reform should prioritise professionalising boards, separating politics from operations, and enhancing accountability.

3. Reinvention: Redefining the Role of SOEs

Reinvention goes beyond tweaks – it reimagines the role of SOEs in the economy. This could mean partial privatisation, public-private partnerships (PPPs), or transitioning SOEs into entirely new models.

Case example: Brazil’s Embraer shifted from being a state-owned enterprise to a privatised aerospace leader, now competing globally.

Quote: “Reinvention requires courage. It’s about asking whether the state should be doing this at all.” – Former UK Treasury Official

Tip for policymakers: Reinvention works best when SOEs operate in competitive markets where private players can drive innovation and efficiency.

4. Risks and Challenges on Both Paths

Neither reform nor reinvention is a silver bullet. Reform may fail if political will is lacking, while reinvention risks social backlash if jobs and public access are disrupted.

Stat: The African Development Bank notes that over 60% of SOE reform efforts stall due to political resistance or lack of capacity.

Practical tip for businesses: Stay agile by scenario-planning. Anticipate how SOE reform or reinvention could impact pricing, supply, and regulation in your sector.

5. The Future Outlook: Hybrid Models

The likely future of SOEs lies in hybrid approaches – blending reform and reinvention. Governments may retain strategic control while opening space for private investment and innovation.

Case example: Ethiopia’s decision to partially privatise its telecom giant Ethio Telecom illustrates how governments can unlock capital while keeping oversight.

Quote: “The future of SOEs is not about choosing between reform or reinvention, but about designing models fit for purpose.” – IMF Policy Paper

Tip for leaders: Advocate for public-private collaboration that balances accountability with innovation.

Conclusion: Reform or Reinvention?
The debate over SOEs isn’t just academic – it’s about economic resilience, fiscal health, and national competitiveness. Some SOEs will benefit from reform, others will require reinvention, and many will follow a hybrid path. What matters most is building governance, transparency, and accountability into whatever model emerges.

For businesses, this means staying alert to shifts in policy, anticipating ripple effects, and seeking opportunities to collaborate in reshaping critical industries. The future of SOEs won’t be defined by reform or reinvention alone, but by the willingness to adapt boldly to a changing economic landscape.

South Africa’s Economic Pulse: What Q3 Means for Businesses

The economy is like a heartbeat – when it speeds up, we feel the rush; when it slows, everything around it reacts. South Africa’s Q3 economic performance sends strong signals about where opportunities and risks lie for businesses. For leaders and entrepreneurs, understanding these shifts isn’t just about staying informed – it’s about positioning for survival and growth.

In this article, we’ll break down South Africa’s economic performance in Q3, explore the sectors driving momentum, highlight risks lurking in the background, and share practical strategies for businesses to adapt. By the end, you’ll have a clear roadmap to navigate the challenges and tap into growth pockets.

1. Q3 at a Glance: Growth Signs and Red Flags

South Africa’s economy showed mixed signals in Q3. On one hand, certain industries gained traction, while on the other, lingering structural challenges dampened momentum. GDP growth remained modest, underscoring both resilience and vulnerability.

Key stat: According to Stats SA, GDP edged up by around 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, driven mainly by finance, mining, and trade, while sectors like manufacturing and construction lagged.

Quote: "South Africa’s economy continues to reflect a push-and-pull dynamic, with global headwinds and domestic constraints shaping performance." – Economist at Nedbank

Tip for businesses: Keep an eye on sector-specific data rather than broad GDP figures – growth opportunities often hide in niche markets.

2. Winners of the Quarter: Sectors Driving Momentum

Certain industries pulled ahead in Q3, offering clues about where opportunities may lie:

• Finance & Business Services: Strong demand for digital banking and insurance products.

• Mining: Rising global commodity prices boosted exports.

• Trade & Tourism: Increased consumer activity and tourism recovery contributed positively.

Practical insight: Businesses in or connected to these sectors should leverage partnerships, expand offerings, or invest in efficiency tools to ride the growth wave.

Stat: Tourism arrivals rose by nearly 20% year-on-year, providing a boon for hospitality and retail.

3. Sectors Under Pressure: Where Risks Remain

Not all industries shared in the momentum. Manufacturing, construction, and agriculture faced persistent challenges.

• Manufacturing: Power outages and supply chain bottlenecks restricted growth.

• Construction: Weak demand for new projects slowed activity.

• Agriculture: Drought conditions and input cost pressures hit production.

Quote: "Load shedding remains the single biggest constraint on South Africa’s manufacturing competitiveness." – Business Leadership SA

Tip for businesses: Diversify operations where possible and invest in energy resilience – solar, backup generators, or efficiency upgrades.

4. Inflation, Rates, and Consumer Behaviour

The cost-of-living crisis continued to bite in Q3, with inflation hovering above 5%. Higher borrowing costs also dampened consumer and business spending.

Stat: South Africa’s repo rate stood at 8.25%, the highest in over a decade.

Consumers tightened their belts, prioritising essentials over discretionary spending. Retailers felt the pinch, though discount brands and value-focused offerings gained traction.

Tip for businesses: Reframe pricing strategies, emphasise value, and adopt flexible payment models to attract cautious consumers.

5. Policy Moves and Global Pressures

Government interventions and global factors also shaped Q3 dynamics. Ongoing fiscal consolidation efforts, public sector wage negotiations, and global oil price volatility all fed into business planning.

Quote: "The interplay between domestic reforms and global uncertainty will determine South Africa’s medium-term outlook." – IMF regional report

Tip for businesses: Build flexibility into budgets and scenario-plan around currency swings, interest rates, and global demand shifts.

6. What Q3 Signals for Q4 and Beyond

Looking forward, businesses should prepare for continued volatility. While opportunities exist in tourism, digital finance, and mining, risks from energy insecurity, inflation, and global uncertainty remain.

Action points for businesses:

• Double down on efficiency and resilience investments.

• Explore regional and global export markets.

• Strengthen risk management and financial planning.

Final thought: South Africa’s Q3 economy is a reminder that turbulence and opportunity often come hand in hand. Businesses that stay agile, informed, and innovative can not only weather the storm but also chart new growth paths.

Conclusion: Turning Insights into Action South Africa’s Q3 results provide a mixed bag – modest growth, resilient sectors, and persistent risks. For businesses, the lesson is clear: don’t wait for the economy to stabilise; instead, adapt proactively. By focusing on resilience, leveraging sector-specific opportunities, and staying alert to global and local trends, companies can find stability and success in uncertain times.